by Nicole Bradford
Growth in the Alvin ISD student population appears on track to hit 36,000 students in the next decade, according to a November 2024 update.
Currently enrolling about 30,000 students, the district has been growing by about 750 students per year, though next year’s forecast is 585 added students, according to Rocky Gardiner of Zonda Demographics.
“We’re seeing a lot of homes,” he said. “About 750 students per year, I think you’ll be pretty close to 36,000 students in 10 years.”
To accommodate forecast growth, Alvin ISD voters on November 5 approved a $380.1 million package for new campuses and expansions of existing ones.
“We have a lot of districts that are top-heavy; they may be a lot of housing but if they have 1,000 more seniors than they do kindergartner students, they end up with a negative enrollment trend,” Gardiner said.
Kindergarten enrollment in AISD has been trending upward.
Most of the new development is on the west side of the district, he said, but there are also a lot of infill areas set to be developed.
“Massey Oaks is one where they’re adding more lots. We’ve had over 1,100 that are going to be built there. The student yield is fairly low there. We should see that accelerate.”
Apartment occupancy has declined over the last few years due to the number of new units being built, and since many of the newer units are one or two-bedroom, they don’t tend to draw as many families with school-age children. About 3,400 of the district’s students live in apartments or mobile homes.
